Why there is a 60%+ chance of AI systems autonomously building their own successors by the end of 2028, and a look at the consequences of fully automated AI R&D (Jack Clark/Import AI)

Leading AI researchers assess a 60%+ probability that AI systems will autonomously develop their own successors by 2028, with major implications for R&D acceleration and competitive dynamics in the AI industry. Simultaneously, major AI labs are forming $1.5B+ joint ventures with Wall Street and private equity firms to aggressively deploy AI agents across enterprise portfolios, signaling that rapid, scaled AI adoption—and associated workforce disruption—is now backed by institutional capital and distribution networks. For CIOs and technology leaders, this convergence means accelerated AI capability development cycles, heightened pressure to rapidly integrate AI systems into business processes, and urgent need to address workforce readiness and organizational redesign implications.