AI was supposed to hit new grads hard. So far, unemployment data says otherwise.

A new CESifo working paper finds no broad evidence yet that AI is materially reducing hiring or employment for recent college graduates, challenging the narrative that entry-level workers are already being displaced at scale. For CIOs and technology leaders, the strategic takeaway is that the near-term impact of AI may show up first as slower growth in junior hiring and a redesign of standardized tasks rather than headline layoffs—making workforce planning, operating-model changes, and reskilling more important than simple headcount cuts. The article also suggests the risk could rise quickly as AI adoption deepens, so IT organizations should treat entry-level roles as an early indicator of where automation will next reshape talent demand.