Coding expertise is going to collapse from AI reliance

AI coding tools are creating a paradox where expertise is required to use them effectively, yet these same tools erode the skill-building friction necessary to develop that expertise—particularly threatening junior developers who lack the foundational knowledge to validate AI outputs and are pressured to adopt these tools for competitive reasons. Research shows that novice developers with unrestricted AI assistance develop an 'illusion of competence' while skipping critical learning stages, while those who deliberately limit AI usage develop better problem-solving abilities and 'negative expertise' (the ability to reject incorrect suggestions). IT organizations must recognize that overreliance on AI coding assistants risks creating a workforce gap where experienced developers thrive while a new generation lacks the foundational skills to architect solutions, audit code quality, or advance their careers.